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Pawel Huryn
105 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
105 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
---
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description: Run a pre-mortem risk analysis on a PRD, launch plan, or feature — identify what could go wrong before it does
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argument-hint: "<PRD, plan, or feature description>"
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---
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# /pre-mortem -- Pre-Launch Risk Analysis
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Imagine your launch has failed. Now work backward to figure out why. This command applies the Tigers/Paper Tigers/Elephants framework to surface real risks and create mitigation plans.
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## Invocation
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```
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/pre-mortem [paste or upload a PRD, launch plan, or feature spec]
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/pre-mortem We're launching a self-serve billing portal next month
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```
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## Workflow
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### Step 1: Accept the Plan
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Accept in any format: PRD, feature spec, launch plan, project brief, or verbal description. The more detail provided, the sharper the risk analysis.
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### Step 2: Risk Identification
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Apply the **pre-mortem** skill:
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Imagine the product has launched and failed. Generate risks across categories:
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- **Technical**: Performance, scalability, integration failures, data issues
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- **User**: Adoption barriers, usability problems, unmet expectations
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- **Business**: Revenue impact, competitive response, market timing
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- **Operational**: Support load, documentation gaps, training needs
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- **Dependencies**: Third-party services, cross-team handoffs, regulatory
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### Step 3: Classify Risks
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Categorize each risk:
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**Tigers** — Real, substantive risks that could cause failure
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- Assess severity: Launch-blocking / Fast-follow / Track
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- For launch-blocking Tigers: immediate mitigation required
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- For fast-follow Tigers: plan to address within first sprint post-launch
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- For track Tigers: monitor but don't delay launch
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**Paper Tigers** — Risks that feel scary but are overblown
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- Explain why the concern is manageable
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- Note what would need to change for this to become a real Tiger
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**Elephants** — Unspoken risks the team knows about but avoids discussing
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- Surface political, organizational, or uncomfortable risks
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- Frame constructively with suggested conversation starters
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### Step 4: Generate Pre-Mortem Report
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```
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## Pre-Mortem: [Feature/Launch]
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**Date**: [today]
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**Status**: [Draft / Reviewed]
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### Risk Summary
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- **Tigers**: [count] ([launch-blocking], [fast-follow], [track])
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- **Paper Tigers**: [count]
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- **Elephants**: [count]
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### Launch-Blocking Tigers
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| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner | Deadline |
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|---|------|-----------|--------|-----------|-------|----------|
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### Fast-Follow Tigers
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| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Planned Response | Owner |
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|---|------|-----------|--------|-----------------|-------|
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### Track Tigers
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[Risks to monitor post-launch with trigger conditions]
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### Paper Tigers
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[Concerns that seem big but are manageable — with reasoning]
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### Elephants in the Room
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[Uncomfortable truths the team should discuss]
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### Go/No-Go Checklist
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- [ ] All launch-blocking Tigers mitigated
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- [ ] Fast-follow plan documented and assigned
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- [ ] Monitoring in place for Track Tigers
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- [ ] Rollback plan defined
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- [ ] Support team briefed
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```
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Save as markdown.
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### Step 5: Offer Next Steps
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- "Want me to **update the PRD** with risk mitigations?"
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- "Should I **create test scenarios** for the riskiest areas?"
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- "Want me to **draft a launch checklist** from these findings?"
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## Notes
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- The best pre-mortems happen when the plan is 80% done — early enough to change course, late enough to have substance
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- Push past the obvious risks — the most dangerous risks are the ones nobody mentions
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- Elephants are the highest-value output — surfacing what the team avoids discussing
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- For each Tiger, the mitigation should be specific and assignable, not "be careful"
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- If the pre-mortem reveals too many launch-blocking Tigers, recommend delaying or phasing the launch
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